Chaos Theory: 9-11; Delta 1989, flap of a butterfly’s wings

Introuction

No one could have predicted that a plane never under duress could be a center piece in the unfolding events of 9-11. Yet it was and its story became conflated and confused as the government, in particular NORAD and FAA, failed to sort out the events of the day in the aftermath.  It was a significant flap of a butterfly’s wings that morning.

In this article we will tell the Delta 1989 story using the best primary source, the actual voices of the people involved.  The clarity of my emerging understanding of the story comes about for two reasons.  First, I now use the lens of chaos theory to revisit, study and better understand the events of that morning.  Second, I now have the luxury of time to parse the audio files of the day in detail and with an overarching theory in place.

Background

I have touched on Delta 1989 in other articles.  The radar files show that the paths of UA 93 and D 1989 were such that controllers had to move Delta 1989 out of the way, to cause it to “meander.”  We know that NORAD, Colonel Marr and General Arnold in particular, recall watching UA 93 “meander.”  We also know that Delta 1989 was the only plane for which NEADS established a track, B-89, and forwarded that track to NORAD.  Delta 1989 was the only “hijacked” plane that NORAD would report about in the National Military Command Center’s (NMCC) Air Threat Conference.  Delta 1989 took on a life of its own far beyond its mere position as simply one other aircraft aloft.

So, how did all that happen?  Here is that story, and we began with a discussion of how chaos built that morning as the nation grappled with unfolding events it did not anticipate, under estimated as they occurred, and, in both real time and the final analysis, did not understand.

Chaos, from Boston to Herndon

Events became chaotic for Boston Center (ZBW) the moment a strange voice was heard on frequency by the controller responsible of AA 11.  Boston’s reaction was straight forward, they declared a hijack at 8:25, notified Herndon Center at 8:27, contacted Otis TRACON at 8:34 and NEADS at 8:38.  They thought they had things under control and the situation transferred to New York Center (ZNY).

The transfered situation was not immediately chaotic; it was a matter of finding AA 11 spatially, they had it on radar, and projecting a potential destination.  All that changed at 8:46 when AA 11 slammed into the World Trade Center north tower and the attack bifurcated.  The transponder code for UA 175 changed and changed again as it morphed into a transponding intruder and, UA 175, itself, became a plane of interest.

Watchers around the world saw UA 175 knife into the second World Trade Center tower.  What no one knew was that the original attack, itself, had bifurcated,  AA 77 went missing and was presumed down.  That was chaotic for Indianapolis Center, but not for Herndon Center.  The lost report went to FAA’s Great Lake Center and to the DoD’s Rescue Coordination Center, and no further.

In the immediate aftermath of the two-pronged attack on New York Center, Herndon Center and the air traffic control centers did what they could to control chaos; they established bounds, ground stops at key locations.

However, while this was happening ZBW had been assessing the situation.  Ever proactive–hijack notification to the military, cockpit notification to planes under its purview–ZBW concluded that there was a developing pattern and it reported its assessment to Herndon Center.

Delta 1989 becomes a plane of interest

ZBW concluded that the pattern was that transcontinental flights to Los Angeles from Boston were being hijacked.  There wee three planes that fit that model–AA 11, UA 175, and Delta 1989.  They reported that observation to both New England Region, its higher administrative headquarters, and to Herndon Center, tis higher operational headquarters.

That initiative took hold before anything was known about AA 77 outside of Indianapolis Center and Great Lakes Region.  It is the most likely source of concern by the air traffic control system that there might be a third plane.  That “third plane” was not AA 77, it was not UA 93, it was Delta 1989.